EURUSD turns higher? Strong rally on expectations of EU zone rate hikes【August 31, 2023】

August 31, 2023

Markets Analysis

Fundamental Analysis

  • U.S. ADP employment data fell short of market expectations; GDP unexpectedly revised downward
  • Dollar Selling Accelerates as Additional US Interest Rate Hike Observations Recede
  • Gold rises, buying intensifies as rate hike speculation recedes

EURUSD Technical Analysis

Analyze the daily chart of the EURUSD market. Inflation in Germany and Spain has not declined, and the ECB is expected to be forced to raise interest rates. Furthermore, the release of the consumer price index for the EU bloc today is drawing market attention.

On the technical front, the pair has rebounded at the 240 moving average and is in contact with the 24 moving average. The EURUSD has been strongly bid due in part to the weaker US dollar. The cross-yen EURJPY is also at its highest level since 2008, and buying is spreading to the euro as a whole.


Day Trading Strategy (Hourly)

Analyze the hourly chart of the Eurodollar market. A profit-taking pullback has been seen after touching the +3σ of the Bollinger band; the 240 moving average is above, and the short-term moving average is also up. Based on these indicators, the uptrend is likely to continue if we only look at the hourly chart. However, taking into account the daily trend, the moving averages and the Ichimoku Kinko’s Kumo (equilibrium) cloud will act as resistance, making aggressive buying difficult.

Today’s policy is to buy for a deep push. We would like to ride the trend with limited risk by setting entry at USD 1.0900, close at USD 1.0965, and stop at USD 1.0885.

Support and Resistance Lines

The resistance line to be considered in the future is as follows

1.1012 USD – Major resistance level
1.10002 USD – Round number
1.09002 USD – The reference line of the equilibrium chart


Market Sentiment

EURUSD Sell: 72% Buy: 28%

Today’s Important Economic Indicators

Economic Indicators and EventsJST (Japan Standard Time)
EU Consumer Price Index18:00
U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index Core21:30

*Trading advice in this article is not provided by Milton Markets, but by Shu Fujiyasu Jr., a certified technical analyst.

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