USD/JPY Falls as U.S. Labor Market Shrinks, Raising Speculation of an End to Interest Rate Hikes【November 17, 2023】
November 17, 2023
- The U.S.-China summit concludes, agreement on military-level dialogue but no resolution to conflicts
- U.S. unemployment insurance claims increase, indicating a slight contraction in the labor market
- Crude oil prices drop significantly, breaking the USD 75 support line, falling into the USD 72 range
USDJPY Technical Analysis
Analyzing the daily chart of the USD/JPY pair. Currently, the price has fallen to the mid-150 JPY range, reflecting the increase in job seekers due to the rise in U.S. unemployment insurance claims. This has lowered the likelihood of further interest rate hikes, leading to a rise in stock prices and a cheaper dollar.
The market is currently enveloped by the high and low of a large bearish candle formed three days ago, requiring caution for strong future movements. A drop below 150.22 JPY could accelerate the yen’s strength. The Ichimoku Kinko Hyo suggests a potential market peak, with prices below the Conversion Line. The expected U.S. interest rate cut could lead to a narrowing interest rate differential, potentially strengthening the yen.
Day Trading Strategy (1-Hour Chart)
Analyzing the 1-hour chart of the USD/JPY pair. Currently, a strong downward trend is visible, aiming towards 150.220 JPY. Today’s pivot point is around 150.80 JPY, with a strong resistance above 150.75 JPY.
The RSI stands at 45, and the MACD histogram is beginning to form a valley. Yesterday’s low was 150.285 JPY, which did not break below 150.220 JPY. Considering the daily chart pattern, there is a possibility of retesting the low.
For day trading, consider selling on a rebound near 150.75 JPY. Set the take-profit at 150.22 JPY and the stop-loss at 151.20 JPY.
Support and Resistance Lines
The resistance line to be considered in the future is as follows
151.48 JPY: Major resistance zone
150.22 JPY: Major support zone
USDJPY: 66% Sell, 33% Buy
Today’s Important Economic Indicators
|Economic Indicators and Events||JST (Japan Standard Time)|
|UK Retail Sales||16:00|
|EU Consumer Price Index||19:00|
|U.S. Building Permits||22:30|
*Trading advice in this article is not provided by Milton Markets, but by Shu Fujiyasu Jr., a certified technical analyst.