Fundamental Analysis

• Crude oil prices rise due to intensified conflicts between US, UK, and military forces
• The US FOMC meeting this week, with focus on Chairman Powell’s comments
• USD/JPY in the 148 JPY range, with the rise in crude oil acting as a factor for selling yen

USDJPY Technical Analysis

Analyzing the daily chart of USD/JPY. The recent high was around 148.80 JPY, and although it once fell back to the 146 JPY range, it has risen again to around 148.15 JPY. Last week, the Bank of Japan decided to maintain its negative interest rate policy, postponing the timing of rate hikes.

The FOMC meeting is scheduled this week, and any mention of the timing of US rate cuts could affect the dollar’s movement. The recent upper limits are expected to be 148.80 JPY and 149.15 JPY. The RSI is around 59, indicating an upward trend.

Crude oil is on an upward trend, and it is highly likely to break into the 149 JPY range soon. However, the 150 JPY range is expected to be a very strong resistance zone, as the Bank of Japan is expected to raise rates in the medium to long term, while the US is entering a cycle of rate cuts.

Day Trading Strategy (1-Hour Chart)

Analyzing the 1-hour chart of USD/JPY. It is steadily rising, rebounding from the 240 moving average line and aiming for the recent high of 148.80 JPY. The RSI is at 59, indicating a stable upward trend.

With rising crude oil prices, there is strong pressure to sell yen. It seems likely to aim for 148.80 JPY. However, if it reaches the 149 JPY or 150 JPY ranges, a correctional fall might occur. Important economic indicators are due this week, and position adjustments are expected.

Day trading policy: Sell entry around 149.60 JPY, settle at 148 JPY, stop at 150.10 JPY.

Support and Resistance Lines

Upcoming significant support and resistance lines:

148.80 JPY – A major resistance line

Market Sentiment

USDJPY Sell: 72%, Buy: 28%

Today’s Important Economic Indicators

*Trading advice in this article is not provided by Milton Markets, but by Shu Fujiyasu Jr., a certified technical analyst.