USD/JPY Falls Ahead of Key Indicators, Possibly Due to Position Adjustments【January 30, 2024】

January 30, 2024

Markets Analysis

Fundamental Analysis

  • Difficult market conditions for a rise ahead of key indicators such as FOMC and GDP from various countries
  • USD/JPY fails to break the resistance zone at 148.12 JPY, forming a consolidation over two weeks
  • USD/JPY breaks the upward trend line, influenced by a weaker dollar

USDJPY Technical Analysis

Analyzing the daily chart of USD/JPY. USD/JPY has broken out downwards from the Fibonacci fan. Analyzing the Dollar Index indicates a weaker dollar trend, leading to a market prone to downward pressure on USD/JPY.

USD/JPY tried the 148.12 JPY resistance line over two weeks but did not show an aggressive rise due to fundamentals like the Bank of Japan’s potential rate hike and global shifts towards rate cuts.

A downward move towards the recent support line at 146.77 JPY is conceivable. Today’s focus will also be on important economic indicators from Europe.


Day Trading Strategy (1-Hour Chart)

Analyzing the 1-hour chart of USD/JPY. The chart shows a downtrend with lower highs, confirmed by the trend line. It also shows a breakout downwards from an important upward trend line. With a weaker dollar, there is a relative increase in yen buying.

After forming a range for two weeks at high levels, a breakout downwards could lead to significant movement. The aim is to sell down to 146.77 JPY, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level on the daily chart.

With the FOMC ahead from tomorrow, the market is unlikely to rise aggressively. The RSI is at 37, indicating a stable downward trend. Day trading strategy: sell. Sell entries in the early 147 JPY range, rotate sales down to 146.77 JPY, and stop if the upward trend line is surpassed.

Support and Resistance Lines

Upcoming significant support and resistance lines:

146.77 JPY… A major support line


Market Sentiment

USDJPY Sell: 66%, Buy: 34%

Today’s Important Economic Indicators

Economic Indicators and EventsJST (Japan Standard Time)
Australian Retail Sales9:30
German GDP18:00
EU Gross Domestic Product19:00
U.S. Consumer Confidence IndexMidnight

*Trading advice in this article is not provided by Milton Markets, but by Shu Fujiyasu Jr., a certified technical analyst.

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