Fundamental Analysis

• U.S. stock markets were closed yesterday for Independence Day and there was no trading
• Volatility in the currency markets also decreased and the market is waiting for materials
• Gold was pushed lower due to slowing U.S. economic indicators and a sense of undervaluation
• USDJPY hovering around 144.50, with USD buying and JPY buying occurring at the same time

XAUUSD Technical Analysis

Analysis of the hourly chart of Gold shows that a golden cross has occurred where the short-term moving average (daily moving average) exceeds the long-term moving average (2-week moving average). The price is also continuing to rise, supported by the 24 moving averages.

The USD 1,931 price level is a major resistance zone and a price area where the price has fallen back twice in the past. However, what is different from the last two times is the occurrence of a golden cross. In the past two occasions, the short-term moving average was below the long-term moving average, which was a perfect point for a return to the market.

This time, a golden cross has occurred and the RSI is at 55, so a breakout is more likely than before if the price tries USD 1,931.

Day Trade Strategy (Hourly)

The day trade policy is to pull back enough to sell back. Since we remain concerned about holding a position in the direction of dollar selling, we would like to set up a short-term sell entry at the breakout and overbought level. Specifically, we will consider selling entries at $1940 and $1946. Since the U.S. FOMC meeting summary is due to be released, we intend to close out our positions before the release.

Support and Resistance Lines

The resistance line to be considered in the future is as follows

1,931 USD – Major resistance level
1,925 USD – Pivot point

Market Sentiment

XAUUSD　Sell: 62% Buy: 38%

Today’s Important Economic Indicators

*Trading advice in this article is not provided by Milton Markets, but by Shu Fujiyasu Jr., a certified technical analyst.